Postcards from the Bleeding Edge
Sunday, October 12, 2008

  Waiting for another shoe to drop

Q- Why did God create economists?
A- So meteorologists would not look quite so bad.

There has been a lot of doom and gloom lately. A whole bunch of bankers and economists are now in Washington, trying to fix it. By Wednesday last week I had concluded that the Paulson plan had created more uncertainty than it resolved, and world governments were all competing now to offer the best deals for international capital for fear they would go the way of Iceland. Perhaps this weekend the uncertainty will end, although the gross distortion of the markets created by all this government activity will remain for years or decades.

"Who will get a handout? Who won't?" - has become the dominant economic thought.

Thursday's stock market took out those fears on the regional banks.

I have long advocated decentralization, local government, local ownership, and local responsibility for your actions. It's hard to look the guy you are screwing over in the eye at the behest of your faceless masters.

The course the world governments and corporations are on is the precise opposite, and when those efforts fail... ordinary people will have to pull together again for mutual support.

Some are calling for the G7 to incorporate the more successful economies of the third world. Gee, thanks for the invite to clean up the party mess....

I still believe that hyperinflation, at least in the conventional sense (1000s of percent) is impossible for the dollar. All the naysayers quote from both the Great Depression and the Weimar inflation, and in neither case were the markets so globally linked, and in the Weimar Republic case, the Mark was not backed by 12 aircraft carriers, a multitude of nuclear submarines, an uncountable number of ICBMs, and the best (if currently overstretched) air force and army in the world. Fiat currencies, backed by force, can hold up for a while.

Note that I find it depressing to have to say that. I would prefer to be saying that there was some strong sector in the US economy that would save us all, but the online advertising bubble has run its course, and nothing has shown up so far to replace it. Nanotech and solar? Maybe...

Nothing has appeared to stop this endless flow of fake money after bad. Over the past few years all the core statistics have been jiggered as to make objective evaluations of what to do invalid, much as they were in the Soviet Union before its collapse. Why not give up on GDP, and substitute some index of more use than the CPI? An orgasm index for men, and a "feelin-fine" index for women, perhaps, and a quality of life index, which would also factor in man's impact on the planet.

I desperately would like to see fish populations stop imploding for one thing, and to get better than 0 cents a word for what I write, for another. I have no idea on how to accomplish either.

Protecting house prices? What long term good does that do for those that don't own? Or, take, for example, the auto industry bailout incorporated (without fanfare) in the budget passed recently...

GM and Chrysler, due for a 25 billion dollar handout/bailout, are in merger talks.

These businesses are too big to fail? They are too big not to fail. When a corporation - or government - reaches a certain age and size, much like a person, it gets blocked arteries and mental problems. It's best that they die, or divest, and make room for something new to rise from the ashes.

Take a moral dilemma like this one, and smoke it for a while. Tesla Motors has developed a breakthrough electric sportscar and is building a 250 million dollar facility to produce an all electric sedan, heavily subsidized by two local governments, without help from the feds. What makes that investment less valid than the bailout from congress? Why should California be competing with the Federal Reserve? The Fed can print money, California can't. Who is making better investment decisions?

California's still in line for a 7 billion dollar bailout, because they can't get anyone to buy their bonds, perhaps due to their irresponsible spending? Debt, debt, and more Debt. When will adding on debt seem like an unsound option to anyone in power? High rates of inflation seem inevitable for the foreseeable future. Why buy poorly paying bonds from a bankrupt state with no worthwhile industrial outputs save movies and online advertising?

There is no sign of anyone finding a way to pay for anything except by printing money. I'd really like to know where the money for all this is going to come from... some change in government policies... some cutbacks... legal changes... somewhere....

Perhaps the Guvernator will legalize pot, like Mexico is trying to - tax it - and send the tax money to the schools and Tesla? That would almost make sense in this environment. It would mellow everybody out, and boost sales of chocolate and twinkies, and cut down on the pesticides in use in the national forests.

Regarding higher rates of inflation, there seems to be no valid hedge left (besides put options). I view the now global guarantee of banks by governments (australia
just joined the club
), as the ultimate gun to the heads of lenders that would rather choose to be prudent, and raise interest rates and lend only to those creditworthy.

I would have liked it if McCain hadn't show up for the first presidential debate, and the other presidential candidates had. I still remember that the last time they tried, in 2004, the Libertarian and Green candidates were arrested, which I guess was disincentive enough for them not to even try this year.

It sure would be nice to see some more options on the national debate stage than a choice between fascism or socialism.

It's astonishing how hard you have to work to hear these other points of view in the tumult, even with an RSS news feed. Here's Ralph Nader, running independently and now on the ballot of 45 states, Ron Paul, running nowhere but behind the scenes, the Green Party, and Chuck Baldwin, of the Constitution Party, and Bob Barr, of the Libertarian Party....

But, noo... A or B, A or B, A or B, crieth the MSM!

I'd like to hear from more real bankers, brick and mortar bankers, regional bankers, someone like Jimmy Stewart in "It's a wonderful life", to get the straight dope. The only one I know (retired, father of a friend), just stuffed his savings into a coffee can.

According to wikipedia, U.S. Treasury statistics indicate that, at the end of 2006, foreigners held 44% of federal debt. The statistics that I trust (shadowstats) are saying that the monetary base jumped 16.8% over the past year (and roughly the same the previous year) and according to the M3, that almost all of that expansion, up to august, came from international sources.

This indicates, strongly, that foreigners now hold well over 50% of the US debt. (I await confirmation from other sources)

What we have is an untenable situation. Governments have piled up so much debt that even a modest increase of interest rates would break their budgets, so out come the guns and tanks.

The independent evaluators of risk are scared silly. That includes me.

Yet, I also think that the size of the gold market - physical gold - is now so small as to be a hedge only for the most lucky and connected of individuals. Gold, despite its cachet among gold bugs, is just another commodity now, its glory days are long past, and, still, getting hold of physical gold is harder than buying liquor, which has more intrinsic value.

I'm stocking up on scotch. I don't think wuffie will pay for anything any time soon.

If I had a trillion dollars

(apologies to the Bare Naked Ladies for appropriating their song)

If I had a trillion dollars (instead of the Treasury)
If I had a trillion dollars, I'd buy an RV (and tow a Tesla off the back)
If I had a trillion dollars, I'd fix the roads and bridges (but I might focus more on trains)
If I had a trillion dollars, I'd walk away from my house
If I had a trillion dollars, I'd build a whole bunch of nuclear plants (and a lot of solar panels too)
If I had a trillion dollars, I'd buy everyone, absolutely everyone a beer (one of those nice micro-brews)

I still have a few more lyrics to add to that.



I still plan to fiddle while Rome burns, knowing full well what Nero accomplished on his return to Rome. There's absolutely nothing I can do to affect whatever happens next, so I plan to keep my head down, write no long term contracts, keep my own house in order and contribute to my local (Nicaraguan) economy as much as possible. I don't really want to participate in an economy where terry childs is still in jail and his management isn't. There seems to be a long way left to go before that happens.

Jamie Johnson was so inspired by his stay in San Juan Del Sur to have gone right into the studio, and lay down 5 songs. My favorite is Rainstorm, because it accidentally ties into a lot of my own story. Have a listen, on headphones.

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Comments:
Speaking of Rome (?), I changed planes there today and tonight I helped the Italian economy by consuming a *lot* of local wine. That's no way to get over jet lag but, OOPS, too late.
Our 401(k) has taken it in the shorts along with that of many others. At this point, we're just hunkering down to try and weather the storm.
And hey, maybe that Monta Vista stock will be worth something someday.
Ciao, baby!
 
Dear Dave;

Great post, thanks much for all of it.

I'm not letting this love of the nuke slide though.

Here's a nice breakdown, much better than I could do.

You may read it at your leisure, or not.

http://www.i-sis.org.uk/TheNuclearBlackHole.php

In short, aside from the folks who make zillions of dollars on nukes, nuke achieve practically nothing at all. They are staggeringly expensive, NOT CLEAN, and *still* no one knows what to do about the waste products, which are toxic to EVERYTHING.

Nukes are anti-life. Get used to it.

Handy? sure. Good idea? hardly. Never were.
 
I don't know anyone that is pro-nuclear that doesn't favor some sort of breeder reactor technology.

The thorium breeder looks the most promising of the alternatives.

My support of nuclear technology is limited to addressing the base-load problem, which is currently being addressed by oil, gas, coal, nuclear, and geo.

Oil is too valuable to burn. Gas is pretty good but I don't know if it can be scaled up to meet demand. The demands of coal extraction compares (unfavoriably) with uranium, and geo-whatever is not much of an option in the US.

I concede the storage and decommissioning issues.

In other pieces I've written this year I have concluded (reluctantly) that coal was the best answer for the US, because adequate supplies exist for hundreds of years, in the US.

I doubt that gas production can scale up to meet demand... which leaves nuclear as the only way to meet that demand (unless you are advocating trebling coal use?).

Similarly, I favor continued development of nuclear power in the US on a technological expertise basis - it is one of America's few export markets, and makes far more sense to have in countries even more lacking in sufficient alternatives like India and China (and France, et al). I would also like new plants built so that we would stop running the old ones long past their design lifetimes.

I would like it even more if demand could be scaled back and our 24x7 society fit more in harmony with the earth.

For non-base load supplies, solar and wind (preferably locally owned and generated) I continue to strongly favor. I have great hopes for nanosolar, as I have also noted elsewhere, but the unknowns remain large.

I found the articles you cited to pretty good, but they tended to cherry pick statistics to support their arguments. I will take some time to pick them apart and prepare a suitable response, but for example:

"Nuclear is worse than a gas fired electrical plant" - Well, yea. Better than coal by a long shot, however.

"Most of the heat produced is also wasted" - heat is wasted in all these technologies and the actual warming imparted to the globe pales compared to that of greenhouse gases.

The LCA assessment uses US practices, and fails to note that other countries have managed to build safe nuclear power plants far faster (france, 8 years on average, China, shooting for 4)

The article mentions that uranium mines need to be reclaimed, but fails to note the same thing about coal.

Like too many anti-nuclear-articles it assumes that solar and wind can be baseload technologies.

That's all the criticism I can come up with just after a short glance at it.
 
This comment has been removed by the author.
 
All points noted.

Couple of exceptions. No one is talking about breeders, everyone is talking about More Nukes!

Also, breeders are mostly theory, and very little practical. All we need do is build a lot more nukes, and we can sort all those breeder details out later. My vote? Nope. You folks (the nuke industry, which is wholly coupled to the military) have already shown what lengths you are willing to go to in order to achive your idea of world domination. Your technology is anti-life, and you don't give a shit. You lie, cheat, steal, murder, etc. Fixing it in the mix isn't an answer, it's an excuse.

The *answer*, is to scale the hell back on everything. Either we do it intentionally and rationally, or it will be done for us. Base loads are bullshit. It's basically as Jello Biafra put it so long ago;

Give me convenience, or give me death."

Personally, I can live with better insulation, passive heating, passive cooling, a backyard farm, bicycling where I need to go and no fraking cellphone. 20 years ago, practically no one had a cellphone. And there was no google. I can live without both. Selling the grandkids short on their ability to even have a life at all, in order to power the server farms doesn't cut it with me.

We knew 40 years ago this was an issue. 30 years ago folks
were starting to get serious about conservation.

Then what?


Honesty's all out of fashion,
These are the rigs of the time
Ay me boys,
These are the rigs of the time

The Transnational companies are running the show
Unaccountable, faceless ones, nobody knows
Richer than countries, their cause they advance
They pull the strings that make politics dance

(Maddy Prior's version)
 
1) Even water cooled nuke plants are evolving towards more breeder-like behavior. To quote from wikipedia:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Breeder_reactor

"Current commercial power reactors have achieved breeding ratios of roughly 0.55, and next-generation designs like the AP1000 and EPR should have breeding ratios of 0.7 to 0.8, meaning that they produce 70 to 80 percent as much fuel as they consume, improving their fuel economy by roughly 15 percent compared to current high-burnup reactors."

I enjoy culture jamming as much as anyone - and Jello Biafra was a master.

"Personally, I can live with better insulation, passive heating, passive cooling, a backyard farm, bicycling where I need to go and no fraking cellphone. 20 years ago, practically no one had a cellphone. And there was no google. I can live without both. Selling the grandkids short on their ability to even have a life at all, in order to power the server farms doesn't cut it with me."

I'm with you there. My next investment is in better insulation. I don't see a need for a backyard farm in my case (farms are a few km away). Have always loathed cellphones, but the millenials use them quite effectively as a substitute for intelligence and memory. I would like to use a better cooling system, but haven't figured out the right technology for it.

As for selling out the next generation to power the server farms - aren't we making the world safe for the botnets, too?
 
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