Postcards from the Bleeding Edge
Saturday, December 25, 2004

  Asteroid 2004MN4

Considering the mass (8e+10kg estimated), orbital inclination (3.3 deg), and eccentricity (.191276) 2004MN4 is a pretty good candidate for exploration.

The probability estimate needs to be refined to account for the Yorp effect [bellatrixobservatory.org].

Further observations will show approximately what 2004MN4 is made of. I have hope that it's a rocky body with quality ores such as nickel/iron... but only a Deep impact style probe would give us truly hard data.

Now, if you look at the orbital plot [nasa.gov], you'll note just how close this rock is right now... and how close it gets twice a year, not just on april 13, 2029.

While the newspapers and the slashdot articles are focused on the potential impact energy, (m*v), I'm far more interested in m. This rock has more mass than mankind has put into space since the beginning of the Space age; far, far more mass than is projected to be in the International Space station. It's bigger than a football stadium! And there it goes by, whizzing overhead, on near miss after near miss, for the next couple centuries.

(note I may have slipped a decimal point here) Assume 2004MN is 1% nickel. Earth value of 8,000,000 tonnes of nickel is: 12,200,000,000 US dollars. (well, until the nickel futures market crashes harder than this asteroid will). Value of any material, if it were in earth orbit, is 10,000/lb and that's too many zeros for me to type here. For just the nickel. Oxygen is even more valuable. Slag is valuable.

If we just had a booster on the pad with enough oomph, we could get a probe there in a matter of weeks [nasa.gov].

IF this asteroid contains valuable materials (be they platinum, iron, nickel, gold, oxygen, or carbon), it would be a bonanza for mankind's space efforts.

Let's find out! Divert Dawn [ucla.edu](launch date 06/06), or Deep Impact [nasa.gov] (launch date 01/12/05).

This asteroid (and many other NEAs like it [nasa.gov]) is not just a threat, but an opportunity [blogspot.com]. It's an opportunity to get a leg up into space.

Can we afford to take a look? Can we afford not to, with the odds of it striking us currently at 1 out of 45?

Bonus Link: Alas, Clementine:

 
Comments:
Great post!

I haven't read any of your stuff before, just found this entry via Google.

I've thought about mining asteroids quite a bit, off and on, and have a brief description of a mission I would love to see happen:

http://members.cox.net/salamon/Tech/Space/Asteroids/index.html
 
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